Projected India–UAE Capacity Gap May Leave Millions Without Seats by 2035

A recent analysis warns that growing air travel demand between India and the UAE could exceed available seats, leaving a significant portion of passenger journeys unserved by 2035.

Key figures at a glance

The study projects that under current bilateral capacity limits, 27% of forecast India–UAE demand—about 54.5 million passenger journeys between 2026 and 2035—may go unmet. The Abu Dhabi–India corridor is highlighted as particularly strained, with an estimated 13.2 million unserved journeys in the same period.

Growth drivers and timing

India’s rising middle class is central to the surge: the share of households able to travel by air has expanded from 24% in 2010 to 40% in 2024, an increase equivalent to nearly 300 million people. Demand is forecast to grow at 7.2% per year through 2035, adding roughly 22 million journeys annually. According to Matthew Dass, Director of Consulting at Tourism Economics, load factors above 80% on major routes indicate that available capacity could be exhausted by 2026.

Economic and employment consequences

Why seats matter beyond the runway

Restricted international seat capacity has ripple effects on trade, tourism and investment. More available seats enhance business travel, leisure flows and cargo connections; conversely, a shortfall can restrict market access, inflate fares and slow economic integration.

What this means for passengers and ground transport

• Higher fares and fuller flights: Strong load factors typically translate into rising ticket prices and less flexibility for last-minute travelers.
• Greater pressure on airport transfers: Fewer flights carrying more passengers on peak services can lead to spikes in demand for taxis, private transfers and shuttle services at arrival and departure times.
• Booking certainty becomes more valuable: Exact pickup times, vehicle choice and reliable drivers matter more when seats and flight options are limited.

Advice for travelers and transfer providers

Travelers planning routes between Indian cities and UAE destinations should consider booking early, choosing flexible fares where possible, and reserving airport transfers in advance to avoid last-minute price surges. Transfer providers and taxi companies can use demand forecasts to position fleets, offer scheduled meet-and-greet services, and adjust fares by time and location.

Practical checklist for airport transfers

• Confirm flight arrival time and potential delays.
• Pre-book a transfer to secure the desired vehicle and driver.
• Choose providers offering clear vehicle and driver details to avoid surprises.
• Consider shared shuttles for cheaper options or private seater cars for comfort.

Policy choices will shape outcomes

The report stresses that aviation policy and bilateral seat allocation decisions will determine whether India and the UAE capture the full consumer and economic benefits of rising demand. Easier capacity limits could boost GDP, trade and tourism substantially; remaining restrictive risks lost opportunity and higher prices for travelers.

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